Fields 4.1.1 to 4.1.5 are used to provide information on the short-term trend in population size, based on a 12-year period.

The period for short-term trends is 12 years (corresponding approximately to two reporting cycles). For the 2019–2024 reports, this means the period is 2013–2024, or a period as close as possible to this. Some flexibility is permitted, so although trends would ideally be reported for 2013–2024, data from 2010–2021, for example, will be accepted if the best available data relate to surveys in those years, or if using an earlier end point means that the national Article 12 report can be delivered without delay. Nevertheless, note that, as national trends need to be combined to estimate the overall EU-level trend, any trends not reported for the ‘ideal’ trend period will be extrapolated or truncated, as appropriate (See the concepts and definitions technical guidance for more information). For newly arriving species, ideally the trends would be reported with the start year as the year the species first bred/occurred; e.g. if the species was first observed as breeding in 2018 then the short-term trend period would be 2018–2024 for the reporting period 2019-2024.

Indicate if the population trend over the period reported in field 4.1.1 was (only one option can be selected):

(a) stable

(b) fluctuating

(c) increasing

(d) decreasing

(e) uncertain

(f) unknown

Distinguishing ‘stable’ trends from slightly ‘increasing’ or ‘decreasing’ trends will depend on the nature of the trend information available for the species in question. Where statistically robust monitoring data are available, it should be possible to distinguish (and hence report) relatively slight – but statistically significant – increases or decreases (e.g. if the 95 % confidence intervals of the change do not overlap zero). On the other hand, if the allocation of trend direction category is based on less robust data (or expert opinion), a specified threshold (an overall change of 10 % over the trend period) should be used to distinguish ‘stable’ from ‘increasing’ or ‘decreasing’ trends. In both cases, Member States are encouraged to provide relevant explanatory/supplementary information in field 4.3 ‘Additional information’ (e.g. ‘Short-term trend from national common bird monitoring scheme for the period 2013–2024 was -0.4 % (with 95 % CI: = -1.1 % & +0.4 % per year), so change for the whole period was -4 % (95 % CI: -11 % and +4 %); hence categorised as ‘stable’

.’

). For further guidance see the concepts and definitions technical guidance.